Wednesday, 3 September 2008

Georgia and what can one do about it

EU leaders have gathered to the first emergency summit since the "September 11". Then EU Heads of States have expressed its solidarity with American people and committed to fight against terrorism by all means necessary. Current Presidency conclusions make few frown. The summit on Georgia produces results that are well appreciated in Moscow. I wonder if this can constitute a success. However it represents the unfortunate reality. Some journalists were saying that the summit is a success, because during the press conference strong words were used, the text postpones any discussion on Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. But one should not be fooled. PCA will continue, though in the format of the agreement approved in 1998. Conclusions speak about the cross-roads for EU-Russia relations. Last time I checked cross-road lead to many directions, so here again we have not faced the dead end of our partnership, but simply a reflective crossroad.
EU-27 is not one country, neither one voice or one geopolitical reality. EU-27 remains EU on paper and 27 different realities where one needs to compromise and as one wise politician said: "Speed of the herd is determined by the slowest sheep". If I were in Kremlin, I would probably raise a glass of champagne for the EU and wait for Presidency and the Commission to visit, where promises will be made, not delivered and no one will be able to anything about it.

Of course there is another point of view to the situation. One were success of the Summit can be judged by its long term outcome. One could say that the aim of the summit was not to alienate Russia, but to constructively address the problem, while offering Russians a way forward. Will see if this strategy will work. No one could have imagined that Russia could invade Georgia, maybe we will all be surprised that Russia will actually leave it.

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